Bitcoin Bullishness Could Invalidate Key Indicator

2 min readApr 2, 2021
  • Bitcoin’s bullishness could invalidate a historically accurate topping out indicator
  • Look Into Bitcoin creator Philip Swift says that the site’s Pi Cycle Indicator might be wrong for the first time since 2011
  • Swift thinks Bitcoin has more room to run

Philip Swift, the creator of crypto data analytics site Look Into Bitcoin, has stated that the Bitcoin ecosystem is so bullish that it might see one of the site’s long term trend indicators become invalid. In an email to subscribers of the platform, Swift said that the Pi Cycle Indicator, which we have referenced on this site as a potential indicator of when Bitcoin is about to top out, is likely not about to signal a top in this particular cycle, reinforcing the idea that the current market is about to enter a new paradigm.

Cross Coming “In the Next Few Days”

The Pi Cycle Indicator uses the 111-day moving average and the 350DMA x 2, a multiple of the 350-day moving average, in order to predict when Bitcoin’s cyclic move up is coming to an end. For the past three market cycles, a cross of the 111DMA and the 350DMA x 2 has precipitated a market top with incredible accuracy.

As we can see, the two indicators are very close to crossing, with Swift saying the cross is likely to come “in the next few days”:

So does this mean the Bitcoin bull run is over? Swift says no:

My current market outlook for Bitcoin is bullish overall, so my personal view is that there is a good probability Bitcoin will NOT top out and crash when the Pi Cycle Indicator moving averages cross in a few days time. Other indicators are suggesting that this is NOT the end of the market cycle (e.g. RHODL Ratio, 1yr HODL) and that the market is NOT overheated right now (MVRV Z-score).

Bitcoin Sentiment Suggests More to Come

Alongside the technical factors that suggest we have plenty of room to go, we have to consider the less tangible factors such as the market sentiment. While there is bullishness in the air it simply doesn’t feel like the hysteria that accompanies the end of a bull run, where bitcoin is going parabolic and alts are putting in 10–100x runs overnight. For these reasons we agree with Swift — the Pi Cycle Indicator is likely to be invalidated when it crosses.

And what can we expect at the time of the cross? The answer could be…nothing:

Personally, I am excited to see what, if anything, happens when the moving averages cross in the next few days. It will help us understand more about Bitcoin as an emerging asset class moving through its adoption journey.

Amen to that.

Originally published at on April 2, 2021.